Photo : REUTERS/Michele Tantussi
01 February 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #113
IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews
Ukraine: Questions and responses over German ambiguity
Germany’s stance on Ukraine and its recent actions or ‘inaction,’ has led to concerns being raised about the German leadership and the country’s ability to remain united with its allies – the US and NATO. Additionally, it has been dubbed as the “weakest link in the West” vis-a-vis the Ukraine conflict.
What is Germany doing and why?
What are the questions?
First, the denial of weapons export. Germany is Europe’s largest arms exporter and the world’s fourth-largest; despite this, Berlin’s refusal of military assistance to Kyiv via weapons supply questions its “support”.
Germany has a longstanding policy of not providing lethal weapons to conflict zones; although this has been breached in the past, they refuse to budge citing historical reasons referring to the Second World War. This is further backed by their motto of “never again”. Nonetheless, the Scholz-led government decided to supply Ukraine with 5,000 military helmets and fund a field hospital; however, blocking Estonia from exporting nine D-30 howitzers that required German authorization garnered substantial criticism.
Second, an incoherent Russian policy. Germany has not spelt out its action if there is a Russian invasion, unlike the US and NATO. The ambiguity surrounding potential sanctions on Russia concerns allies, as the Kremlin benefits the most from this. However, the Scholz administration claims the unclear policy is a strategy that ensures Russia faces difficulty while preparing for consequences – a reasoning as flawed as it is criticised. Meanwhile, Germany acting against Russia would adversely affect its own economy. Critics, acknowledging this, have accused Berlin of placing its own interests before those of European interests. The incoherence also puts the European and German credibility and reliability at stake.
Third, the Nord Stream 2 (NS2). The natural gas pipeline, by default rather than design, is a major tool of negotiation in the conflict as the US and NATO consider imposing sanctions on it to deter Russia. Although Scholz has reiterated the irrelevancy of NS2 to the Ukraine conflict given its “purely commercial nature,” the pipeline is equally important for Germany and Russia. German energy needs pose a vulnerability risk to Russian threats as it phases out coal, depending on Russian gas reserves. The US and other European countries have been constantly wary of the pipeline and its implied energy dependence.
Fourth, internal differences within Germany. The escalation along Ukraine happens as Germany undergoes a transition from Merkel to Scholz. The seven-week-old government is being ruthlessly compared with the 16-year administration of Merkel. Worsening things, the Scholz-led coalition is rather fragile over the situation as the perspectives of the three constituent parties differ substantially over foreign policy.
From Germany, what are the responses?
First, emphasis on diplomacy to de-escalation. Germans believe that diplomacy is the best solution for de-escalation, not weapons supplies. They realise that exporting weapons to Kyiv alone will not change the military imbalance but will only contribute to a crisis escalation. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock believes financial support is more worthwhile.
Second, emphasis on being an unbiased mediator. Germany’s reiteration of this argument points to the Normandy format, where providing weapons to a party while mediating a diplomatic solution directs to a crisis escalation rather than de-escalation.
Third, history. Germans are yet to get over the horrors of WWII; the possibility of more Russian soldiers dying by German weapons is appalling. Baerbock has said: “We have a duty to all countries of the former Soviet Union because of the terrible suffering we inflicted on millions of people there in the past.”
Fourth, economic reasons. Besides the energy sector, Germany has a substantial interest in economic ties with Russia. Being Europe’s largest exporter and biggest economy, the imposition of additional sanctions on Russia will negatively impact Germany, more than any other country. Thus, Germany has the most to lose.
References:
Philip Oltermann, “Ghosts of Germany's past rise as Olaf Scholz seeks strategy for Ukraine,” The Guardian, 30 January 2022.
Guy Chazan and Max Seddon, “Germany's Russia problem: Ukraine crisis tests new government,” Financial Times, 30 January 2022.
Jenny Hill, “Why Germany isn't sending weapons to Ukraine,” BBC, 29 January 2022.
Judy Dempsey, “Germany's Russia problem: Ukraine crisis tests new government,” Carnegie Europe, 27 January 2022.
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
IRELAND
Ireland government announces a scheme for migrants
On 31 January, Ireland government introduced a scheme for undocumented migrants and their family members to attain Irish citizenship. The justice department estimated that more than 17,000 people lived in Ireland without documentation. According to the Irish justice minister, it is a “once in a generation scheme, which will allow applicants to work and proceed towards their citizenship. The scheme is scheduled to end by 31 July. (“Ireland gives undocumented migrants path to citizenship,” BBC, 01 February 2022)
ITALY
Italian fashion brand announces to opt for eco-fur garments
On 31 January, Italian fashion brand Dolce & Gabbana released a statement along with the animal rights group, Humane Society International announcing the dropping out of animal fur from its collections. The production will henceforth use eco-fur garments and accessories. According to the company's communication and marketing officer: “"The entire fashion system has a significant social responsibility role that must be promoted and encouraged. Dolce & Gabbana is working toward a more sustainable future that can't contemplate the use of animal fur." (“Luxury fashion brand Dolce & Gabbana will stop using fur,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2022)
PORTUGAL
Socialist party wins an absolute majority
On 30 January, Portugal held snap general elections, and Portugal's ruling socialist party secured an absolute majority. As reported by Deutsche Welle: "The Socialists, led by Prime Minister Antonio Costa, received 42% of the vote, the electoral commission said after counting 95% of the ballots." Costa said: "An absolute majority doesn't mean absolute power. It doesn't mean to govern alone. It's an increased responsibility, and it means to govern with and for all Portuguese." Even though one-tenth of the country had been isolated, they were requested to go in the final hours of the poll to vote. ("Portugal's Socialists land parliamentary majority," Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2022)
THE UNITED KINGDOM
Boris Johnson meet Ukraine President to discuss diplomatic options
On 01 February, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss viable diplomatic solutions to prevent direct conflict with Russia. Before Johnson arrived, the UK government declared GBP 88 million to Ukraine to endorse stable governance and to meet energy needs. Johnson said: “It is the right of every Ukrainian to determine how they are governed. As a friend and a democratic partner, the UK will continue to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of those who seek to destroy it.” On the same day, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss declared a new legislation to broaden the UK’s sanctions targeting a wider range of individuals and businesses connected to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. (“Boris Johnson visits Ukraine for talks as Russian invasion fears rise,” BBC, 01 January 2022; “Ukraine-Russia tensions: UK threatens tougher sanctions in event of aggression,” BBC, 31 January 2022)
Sue Gray report on the Boris Johnson Party scandal released
On 31 January, the Sue Gray report on the party gate scandal was published. As per the report, there were 16 events that were conducted in the May and April months in the Cabinet Office and there were three critiques. Starting from how the party events had failed to observe the standards laid by the government, how the gatherings are difficult to be proven against the pandemic restrictions and how the leadership has failed by allowing such events to take place. The Investigation into events have resulted in stifling chaos inside the party of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and few ministers are expected to resign in the coming days. (“Sue Gray party report: What are the findings?,” BBC, 31 January 2022)
COVID-19
Vienna to implement mandatory vaccination
On 01 February, Austria implemented the mandatory inoculation law for anyone above the age of 18. Austrian Minister for the EU and the Constitution Karoline Edtstadler said: "We as politicians, have the responsibility to be sure that the healthcare system is still working, that society, as a whole, can live normally." She also talked about the vaccination interfering with human rights and argued: "But in this case, this interference can be justified." Individuals who refused to get inoculated would face fines that would range from EUR 600 to EUR 3,600, with the exceptions of pregnant women and those who have serious health conditions. Far-right leader Herbert Kickl commented on the vaccine mandate and said it: "paves the way to totalitarianism in Austria." (Bethany Bell, "Austria's Covid vaccine law comes into force amid resistance," BBC, 01 February 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Ukraine-Russia tensions spill over at the UNSC
On 31 January, The UNSC experienced a spillover of the tensions at the Ukrainian border as the countries accused each other of being provocative. At the UNSC council meeting, the US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: "The threats of aggression on the border of Ukraine ... is provocative. Our recognition of the facts on the ground is not provocative." She further stated how: "The provocation's from Russia, not from us or other members of this council." Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia responded: "Our Western colleagues are talking about the need for de-escalation. However, first and foremost, they themselves are whipping up tensions and rhetoric and are provoking escalation." Nebenzia also disputed the number of troops stationed at the border and said: "Where did you get the figure of 100,000 troops that are deployed as you said on the Russian Ukrainian border… we've never confirmed that figure." (David M. Herszenhorn, "US, Russia clash over Ukraine at UN Security Council debate," POLITICO, 31 January 2022; Michelle Nichols and Jonathan Landay, "Russia, US clash at UN over Russian troop build-up near Ukraine," Reuters, 31 January 2022)
France: Ambassador Meyer asked to leave Mali in 72 hours
On 31 January, Mali's military leaders summoned French Minister Joël Meyer and ordered him to leave the country within 72 hours. Meyer was asked to leave due to the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian's comments on Mali's leadership calling them: "illegitimate…out of control". The military leader's action questions the French-led anti-terrorist military operation in Mali that the Malian leaders requested. The West is also concerned about Russia's involvement in the region. Le Drian also talked about the role of Russians, saying: "helping themselves to the country's resources in exchange for protecting the junta." Tensions have increased in Mali as the regime said they would hold power until 2025 instead of keeping their agreement on having elections in February. ("French ambassador expelled from Mali," BBC, 01 February 2022; "Mali expels French envoy over remarks by foreign minister," The Guardian, 31 January 2022)